Angela Merkel: Europe's Most Influential Leader by Matthew Qvortrup

Author:Matthew Qvortrup [Qvortrup, Matthew]
Language: eng
Format: azw3
ISBN: 9780715650622
Publisher: Gerald Duckworth & Co
Published: 2017-03-09T05:00:00+00:00

THE WAR AND THE DELUGE

The campaign was unusual. Normally the FDP would more or less blindly fall behind the candidate proposed by CDU/CSU. But the little libertarian party was concerned about Edmund Stoiber. The Catholic conservative views of many in the CSU alienated the civil rights campaigners in the FDP. Instead Guido Westerwelle (who had become chairman and leader of the party in 2001) proposed to stand for the chancellor ship. He knew full well that he was not going to win a majority on his own but then nor were any of the other parties. So why not? His answer was ‘equidistance’ – to keep both of the largest groups at arm’s length and negotiate the best result. No law said that the Chancellor necessarily had to come from the largest party. In addition, by adopting this strategy he could distance himself from both sides, and then, in the aftermath of the election, negotiate a better deal for his party.

Edmund Stoiber was not a natural. In Bavaria, where the CSU is all but guaranteed a majority in the state elections, he was able to play it safe and appear statesmanlike and dignified. Against Gerhard Schröder it was a different story. Unlike the Chancellor, he was not used to politics as a combat sport. That said, objectively speaking things looked good for Stoiber. He had a good story to tell and had been dealt a good hand. The economy was once again slipping into recession and the polling evidence suggested that Stoiber and his team were ahead on the themes that mattered most at the start of the campaign. Schröder had said that his government should be judged on its ability to reduce the level of unemployment and 85 per cent of the voters agreed that joblessness among the Germans was the main issue in the campaign. In addition, 50 per cent believed that CDU/CSU was the most trustworthy coalition on the economy against only 30 per cent for SPD/Green.

At the personal level, however, Schröder was miles ahead. Asked whom they regarded as a ‘winner’, 63 per cent of the voters opted for Schröder against a paltry 13 per cent for Stoiber. And when asked whom they regarded as more ‘sympathetic’ the figures were almost equally impressively in Schröder’s favour: 61 per cent to 17 per cent. It was undoubtedly this, along with Schröder’s knack for seizing any opportunities that presented themselves, which enabled the incumbent to turn a potentially catastrophic defeat into a close race.

In the wider world, US President George W. Bush had begun a diplomatic effort to win support for a war against Iraq. Although the SDP/Green government had sent German soldiers into battle in Kosovo, Schröder sensed the mood correctly. Many Germans were sceptical of Bush’s motives and over 80 per cent of the voters were against involvement in a possible war, especially if this was fought without a mandate from the UN Security Council.

Schröder’s main stroke of good luck, however, came with the floods in the northwestern state of Lower Saxony in the middle of August 2002.

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